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Steve Bergman for Inman News July 24, 2009
At higher elevations, the air is thinner and so are the second-home-buying
opportunities. However, in this recession, a brief window of affordability has
opened for entry-level homes.
This is good news for people like me.
I live in Arizona, and out of the 20 families on my street about a quarter of
them own second homes and they are all located in mountain communities, not at
beaches.
I don't know everybody on my street, but of the folks I do talk to on a regular
basis, one has a vacation home in Purgatory, Colo., and two have second homes in
the White Mountains of Arizona, where the elevation in cabin areas stands about
7,200 feet above sea level.
This is the Sunbelt phenomenon.
The immediate, Pavlovian response when considering where to go for a regular
summer vacation was always "the beach," whether that stretch of sandy earth was
by an ocean or a lake. But, over the last 50 years, this country's migration
patterns have been from the colder Midwest and Northeast to the warmer Sunbelt
states. People are realizing if you now live in a warm weather climate, why
would you want a second home at a beach? To bake in the sun? You can do that at
the pool in your backyard.
For us heat denizens, mountain locales are multi-seasonal getaways. In the
summer, they are good places to flee the heat and since many mountainous
second-home locales, at least in the West, are located near ski resorts, it's a
place to go for winter sports. Indeed, multiple generations of families often
meet at winter cabins for Christmas or New Year's vacations.
Another bonus for folks like me living in the Arizona desert or those on the
Florida Gold Coast: a trip to the mountains to view the fall colors is always a
terrific, short vacation.
In the second-home market, the argument for a beach property was that it would
always be a good investment because of the limited supply of undeveloped beach
property left in the United States. Ever go shopping for a beach property?
Invariably, your agent will say something to the effect, "God only built so much
beachfront." I can't tell you how many times I heard some variation of that
theme.
In an odd way, the same argument holds true for mountain resort properties,
although at first glance this wouldn't appear to be the case.
When you arrive at your winter vacation spot and look around, what you see are
deep-forested mountains stretching as far as your eyes can see. The natural
beauty of the landscape probably is a hundred miles deep. Plenty of room for
another development, right?
Actually, no.
Most mountain resorts areas -- even those attached to ski resorts -- are
surrounded by national forests and parks, where there is no private development.
In addition, strict environmental standards are usually adhered to in mountain
communities to protect the land itself, conserve water, limit damage to the
forest, or maintain a balance with local wildlife.
All the land that you see is mostly national forest and can't be developed.
Let's take, for example, one of the most beautiful, restrictive and expensive
ski resort areas in the country, Jackson Hole, in Teton County, Wyo.
At the peak of the market, before the financial collapse, the median home price
in the region had climbed to $1.9 million, and the median price of a condo stood
at about $900,000 to $1.1 million, says William Van Gelder, an associate broker
with Sotheby's International Realty in Jackson Hole.
Part of the reason why homes are so expensive in the Jackson Hole area is that
there is only a limited supply of land for building new residences.
"Of the roughly 3 million acres in Teton County, only 3 percent is privately
held," Van Gelder explains. "Of that, 1.5 percent has been deeded to
conservation easements. There's a very finite amount of land in Jackson Hole
that can ever be developed."
Currently, the Teton County government is considering an update of their zoning
plan. The Jackson Hole region counts a population of 16,000 to 20,000, and if
the government simply went bonkers for new development, which would require one
of the current large ranch holdings to be developed to the highest density
possible (which never happens), the population would eventually climb again, but
to no more than 35,000 people.
That would be many years down the road, says Van Gelder.
Limited development doesn't mean you can escape the current recession.
Essentially, Jackson Hole, like many similar ski locations, has a bifurcated
real estate market: the merely expensive and the very expensive.
This past winter, there were only 24 transactions in Jackson Hole, down from 95
transactions in 2008 and about twice that number at peak in 2006. That has
affected pricing, but only for the merely expensive residences.
On the very expensive level, the extremely wealthy may have experienced a bit of
reduction in their investment portfolio, but when they want to buy they still do
-- and with cash.
Down at the "merely expensive" level, in one Jackson Hole development a
one-bedroom, one-bathroom condominium was selling for an average of $550,000.
That price has fallen about $200,000.
That's a price line that won't outlast the recession; it will ski lift to higher
elevations very quickly. After all, God, in cooperation with federal and state
governments, only created so much mountain property for sale.
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